Update for Friday, August 14, 2009

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INTERESTED IN MORE “HOW TO” INVESTMENT INFO PLUS MY NOT ALWAYS POLITICALLY CORRECT RUMINATIONS ABOUT THE MARKET?

I have set up a blog to share my market analysis & insights -- and to sometimes blow off steam when something stupid (or brilliant) catches my eye. You can post comments and voice your opinion uncensored. Take a look:

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This week's hot topics are:

1. "Staying The Course"

2. "Anxiety"

3. "Dow Theory Sending Buy Signals"

4. "The Mother Of All Bear Market Rallies?"

5. "Retirement Plan Worries"

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT MUTUAL FUND/ETF STATSHEET is:

http://www.successful-investment.com/StatSheet/SS081309.htm

This StatSheet is updated through Thursday, August 13, 2009.
The next scheduled update will be Thursday, August 20, 2009.

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Friday, August 14, 2009

REALITY CHECK

The markets got a little bruised today, but not as much as you might have expected given the economic data menu. At one point, the Dow was down some 170 points today, but last hour buying limited the damage. Nevertheless, the major averages declined for the first week out of the last five.

Worries surfaced again (and rightly so) that the lowly consumer may be unable or even unwilling to spend himself back into oblivion, which is a necessary ingredient of fueling and sustaining an economic recovery. Confidence among consumers fell unexpectedly in August as concerns over jobs and wages remained on the front burner.

Then an unexpected dip in retail sales, along with the initial jobless claims, supported worries that an improvement in employment is simply not on the horizon. The consumer is tapped out and just having participated in the Cash For Clunkers silliness stimulation package, something had to give. So retail sales suffered, and I am curious to see what "unexpected" downward trigger will surface next month.

Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) stayed fairly even, and are now positioned as follows:

Domestic TTI: +5.25%
International TTI: +14.75%
Hedge TTI: +2.50%

There are no changes to our investment positions this week, and we are holding all hedges and outright long positions subject to our trailing sell stop points.

The market has come a long way since the lows in early March. I have repeatedly posted about the fact that this rally was built on the basis that economic recovery would materialize. To me, what we've seen so far has been more hype than substance along with unrealistic expectations.

I don't know whether today's market action will be the beginning of a reality check or not. It's long overdue, and I will be prepared to head for the exit doors, should a trend reversal become apparent.

Have a good week.

Ulli...

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Do you have a question regarding your mutual fund investments?

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So, feel free to send your questions to: ulli@successful-investment.com

All Reader Q & A's for this Buy Cycle are now listed at our web site! Check it out at:

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Until next week.

Ulli...

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Ulli G. Niemann
Registered Investment Advisor
714.841.5804 Toll free: 866.580.6764
http://www.successful-investment.com
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