Update for Friday, September 4, 2009

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INTERESTED IN MORE “HOW TO” INVESTMENT INFO PLUS MY NOT ALWAYS POLITICALLY CORRECT RUMINATIONS ABOUT THE MARKET?

I have set up a blog to share my market analysis & insights -- and to sometimes blow off steam when something stupid (or brilliant) catches my eye. You can post comments and voice your opinion uncensored. Take a look:

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This week's hot topics are:

1. "Too Big to Ignore"

2. "On Edge"

3. "All In One” Commodity ETF"

4. "A New Short ETF"

5. "Sunday Musings: Everybody Is Doing The Same Thing"

6. "Looking Ahead"

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT MUTUAL FUND/ETF STATSHEET is:

http://www.successful-investment.com/StatSheet/SS090309.htm

This StatSheet is updated through Thursday, September 3, 2009.
The next scheduled update will be Thursday, September 10, 2009.

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Friday, September 4, 2009

HIGHER UNEMPLOYMENT = HIGHER STOCK MARKET

At least for the day, the market ignored a sharp jump in the unemployment rate to 9.7%, because investors appeared to be encouraged by job losses of "only" 216,000 during the month of August. The mantra of the past few months that "less bad" numbers are a reason to celebrate still held true as we are heading into the last weekend of the summer.

Despite this effort, today's gains were not enough to wipe out the losses sustained earlier in the week, and the major indexes closed down. The Dow lost 1.1%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq surrendered 1.3% and 0.7% respectively.

Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) followed suit and are now positioned as follows:

Domestic TTI: +6.07%
International TTI: +13.35%
Hedge TTI: +2.39%

The unemployment rate of 9.7% was worse than expected (9.5%), which implies that any potential recovery will be slow and very likely not feel like one to those out of work. It will be a long time until we see this rate drop back to the 6-7% area.

With no improvement in sight, I have to wonder who will be doing the spending, which is a necessary component of any recovery because it accounts for almost 2/3 of GDP. If spending is not forthcoming and personal savings continues to increase, I find it hard to believe that stock prices at these lofty levels can be justified.

With many Wall Street participants taking advantage of the long Holiday weekend, trading volume was very light, and we will have to wait until Tuesday to see if the mood favors the pushing of the sell or buy buttons.

Have a nice Labor Day weekend.

Ulli...

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Do you have a question regarding your mutual fund investments?

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All Reader Q & A's for this Buy Cycle are now listed at our web site! Check it out at:

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Until next week.

Ulli...

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Ulli G. Niemann
Registered Investment Advisor
714.841.5804 Toll free: 866.580.6764
http://www.successful-investment.com
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