Update for Friday, November 6, 2009

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INTERESTED IN MORE “HOW TO” INVESTMENT INFO PLUS MY NOT ALWAYS POLITICALLY CORRECT RUMINATIONS ABOUT THE MARKET?

I have set up a blog to share my market analysis & insights -- and to sometimes blow off steam when something stupid (or brilliant) catches my eye. You can post comments and voice your opinion uncensored. Take a look:

http://thewallstreetbully.blogspot.com

This week's hot topics are:

1. "Commission Free ETFs"

2. "Misunderstanding The Trend Tracking Index"

3. "Losing Steam"

4. "Sell Stops For All Positions All Of The Time"

5. "Sunday Musings: A Down Decade"

6. "Subjective Reasoning"

This is another free service, so spread the word to your friends.

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT MUTUAL FUND/ETF STATSHEET is:

http://www.successful-investment.com/StatSheet/SS110509.htm

This StatSheet is updated through Thursday, November 5, 2009.
The next scheduled update will be Thursday, November 12, 2009.

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Friday, November 6, 2009

THE THIRD TIME IS A CHARM

It was a wild week on Wall Street. Twice major rallies fell apart in the afternoon, before a third attempt on Thursday finally pushed the Dow past the 10,000 level, which it held for the remainder of the week. This marks the first weekly close above 10k for the blue-chip index since October 2008.

Thursday's afternoon rally was caused by better-than-expected reports on new jobless claims, productivity and retail sales. Favorable comments from heavy-weight Cisco helped the bullish sentiment.

Even today's horrific unemployment report couldn't keep stocks down. The unemployment rate jumped above 10% for the first time in 26 years, while another 190,000 jobs were lost. This now marks the 22nd consecutive month of job losses. Amazingly, Wall Street in its infinite wisdom did not care and an initial minor sell-off turned out to be a non-event.

The major indexes gained over 3% during the last 5 trading days after two weeks of losses. Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) followed suit and remain above their long-term trend lines by the following percentages:

Domestic TTI: +7.52%
International TTI: +12.24%
Hedge TTI: +0.87%

The major indexes are still below their October highs, so it's too early to tell if this week's rebound has any legs and will continue. As I mentioned in last Friday's update, we were stopped out of a couple positions thereby reducing our equity exposure. If this turns out to be a whip-saw, I will look for new entry points if the upward momentum continues.

To me, it's an amazing phenomenon that this rally has continued in the face of a continuously worsening, although less bad, employment report along with economic news, which could be called questionable at best. Nevertheless, the market has its own mind, and we will follow its trend until undoubtedly it comes to an end.

Along the way, we may encounter a whip-saw signal here and there but, keep in mind, it is those very signals that eventually will save your portfolio when the markets head south again. To me, it pays to play it safe at these lofty levels rather than be sorry later on.

Have a great week.

Ulli...

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Back issues of the Fund Tracker are available on the web at:

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Do you have a question regarding your mutual fund investments?

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Second, I am not running for office and do not have to hide my thoughts in evasive language designed to obscure what I really mean.

So, feel free to send your questions to: ulli@successful-investment.com

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Do you have the time to follow our investment plans yourself? If you are a busy professional who would like to have his portfolio managed using our methodology, please contact me directly or get more details at:

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We are located at:

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Until next week.

Ulli...

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Ulli G. Niemann
Registered Investment Advisor
714.841.5804 Toll free: 866.580.6764
http://www.successful-investment.com
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