|
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|
WEEKLY STATISTICS |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
1. General Domestic
Equity Mutual Funds — BUY Weekly Market Comment: A strong rally on Thursday propelled all major indexes, including our TTIs (Trend Tracking Indexes), out of the sideways pattern onto a higher level. Our domestic TTI made a new lifetime high, which indicates continued upward momentum. Are you interested in reading my possibly politically incorrect ruminations about the market? I have set up a blog, aptly named “The Wall Street Bully,” which will be updated during the week. It gives you the opportunity to post comments and continue the dialog. Take a look at it: http://thewallstreetbully.blogspot.com/ If you have a newsreader, you can subscribe to it and new updates will be delivered to you automatically. Alternatively, you can set this link up in your ‘Favorites’ folder and check at your convenience. This is a free service, so please tell a couple of your friends. GLOSSARY OF TERMS USED: 1. 4Wk, 8Wk, 12Wk and YTD refer to how these funds have performed or “appreciated” during these various time periods. 2. %M/A (39-week Simple Moving Average) shows how far above or below its long-term trend line a fund/ETF is currently positioned. 3. “Since 9/6/06” shows a fund’s performance since that date. This date will be re-set once a new domestic Buy Cycle starts. 4. DD% (DrawDown percentage) measures the drop from a fund’s
high to its current price during this Buy cycle (since Conversely, a fund with a large negative DD% number is a lagging performer and should not be purchased at this time. 5. MaxDD% (Maximum
DrawDown percentage) is not shown in these tables, but you
will find me mention it quite frequently. If you were to go back to the beginning of the previous
Buy cycle ( This allows me to look back at anytime and see which funds have held up best and never hit our 7% sell stop. Those are the ones with a low MaxDD% (or low volatility) number and will be among my primary selections for the next Buy cycle. 1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS: BUY —
since
Our average portfolio
(over $50k) has returned +24.81%, after management fees, for the
Buy Cycle (from Our average portfolio
(over $50k) has returned +8.10%, after management fees, for the Buy
Cycle (from Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Our Trend Tracking Index (TTI) moved higher this week (green line in above chart) and now remains above its long term trend line (red) by +5.24%. My sell rules are as follows: I will liquidate any of my holdings if they drop by more than 7% from their highs since I bought them, or if the TTI breaks below its long-term tend line — whichever occurs first. The link below shows the top 100 domestic funds (out of 674) and is sorted by 4Wk performance. Prices in all linked tables are updated through 7/12/2007, unless otherwise noted. Price data not yet available at publication is indicated with 00.00% or -100.00%. Please note, that I only track no-load, no transaction fee or ‘load waived’ funds, which are available to me through my custodian Charles Schwab & Co. Since all brokers and custodians have different policies you need to check with yours first, before placing any trades, as to no load availability and any charges or fees involved. I have identified those funds, which are available to me as “load waived” funds or “advisor only” funds, with an asterisk before their names. While this may not apply to all brokerage firms, it should allow you to quickly locate those which are truly no load. http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/DomFundsTop100_071207.pdf TIP: Don’t forget to check the 401k funds in section 6 as well, since many of them are available for all types of investment accounts at different brokerage houses. 2. DOMESTIC FUNDS BY FAMILY: American Century, Fidelity, Vanguard, ProFunds, Rydex, T. Rowe Price — BUY http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/DomFFs071207.pdf 3. EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS MASTER LIST As per request, I have added this ETF Master list so that you can quickly compare various ETFs without having to reference other tables. The ETFs listed in the table (498) consist of the following orientations: Domestic, International, Country, Sector and Specialty. Momentum figures for all ETFs are not adjusted for dividends. http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/ETFMaster071207.pdf 4. DOMESTIC EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS (ETFs): BUY ETFs are an excellent alternative to No Load Mutual Funds. They are a valid choice to high mutual fund management fees, restrictive trading and redemption charges, which have been a problem for years. If you’re not sure how to use ETFs please read my FREE article about their pros and cons, which you may view anytime at: http://www.successful-investment.com/articles24.htm All the same Buy and Sell rules apply for domestic ETFs as they do for domestic equity mutual funds in section 1. http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/DomETFs071207.pdf 5. INTERNATIONAL EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY — since 8/17/2006
The International
Index (green) recovered after the Sell signal on 6/13/06, broke above
its trend line (red), back below it and has currently moved above
it by +9.10%. A Buy signal for broadly based international funds/ETFs
(not Country funds) was triggered effective I will use a 7% trailing sell stop on all of my positions. The listings in the link below represent some of my choices of the international funds I track. Please note that I have added Vanguard, Fidelity, T. Rowe Price, Rydex/ProFunds and American Century funds. They are sorted by 4wk performance: http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/InternFunds071207.pdf Be advised that many international funds may not be available to you since they carry a load. However, while I am able to purchase these for my managed account clients as ‘load waived’ funds, this doesn’t help you much, if you do your own investing. This is why I have included some appropriate ETFs in the above list. 6. COUNTRY ETFs: SELECTIVE BUY While I believe that
the This addition to my newsletter will allow us to also invest selectively in countries with better performing stock markets. With the proliferation of ETFs over the past years, we are now able to invest in a variety of countries using low cost index ETFs. The chart shows the Austria Index as an example:
The link contains a list of 39 countries/regions, which I am tracking weekly. Please note that the data in this table do not include adjustments due to distributions. http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/CountryETFs071207.pdf As you just witnessed during May and June 2006, country funds can be volatile and the use of a trailing stop loss (I use 10%) is imperative to protect your portfolio from severe downside moves. 7. TAX-FREE INVESTING This section shows some of the Closed End Exchange Traded Bond Funds (CEETBFs) as discussed in my free e-Book “How to Earn 5% - 6.5% Tax-Free Income,” which can be downloaded from my site. This new addition to the StatSheet is a managed account service I offer. Choosing the right CEETBF out of over 500 takes a lot of work, and special knowledge is required to customize a selection of funds specifically suited to your needs. To identify the general trend of these funds, I have created the TFI-Index, as illustrated in the chart below. If the Index (green line) is above its long-term trend line (red), we are in an environment of lower interest rates. If it breaks below it, we are seeing interest rates rising.
The table below is a small sampling of what is available. Be advised that the columns “Discount,” “Current Dividend Yield,” and “YTD” are updated weekly so that you can see and track the impact changes in interest rates are having. The data is as of 7/3/2007 since current data was not yet available:
Please note that many of these funds have been around for a long time and therefore 10-yr annualized returns are available for most of them. All of them are exempt from Federal taxation and, depending on what state you live in, maybe exempt from State taxation as well. Here’s the glossary of terms used: 1. 1 Yr Return*: The return over the last 12 months consisting of appreciation and reinvested dividends. 2. Since Inception*: The annualized return since the fund started operating. 3. 10 Yr Annualized Return*: The annualized return over the past 10 years. 4. Discount from NAV: The discount or premium from Net Asset Value (NAV) this fund can be currently purchased for. 5. Average Credit Rating: A key number which shows the quality of the fund with AAA being the highest. The percentage shows how much of the funds holdings, as a percentage, are in AAA rated bonds. 6. Morningstar (MS): The current Morningstar rating. NR means that it is not yet rated. 7. Current Div. Yield: That’s the income being generated and it is paid out on a monthly basis, if you wish. This represents spendable income. 8. YTD: Shows the Year-To-Date performance (without dividends) to demonstrate the effect of changes in interest rates. Some funds are showing capital gains, other capital losses. This is a very short-term view. These types of investments should only be made with at least a 5-year time horizon. There are many other factors, which come into play, when evaluating CEETBFs. This section is only designed as an introduction. If you do your own investing in this area, be sure to read my new article titled “The 10 Rules of Successful Tax-Free Income Investing,” which is posted at: http://www.successful-investment.com/articles31.htm If you have a need to generate reliable monthly income, please call me, or go the following link and submit your request: http://www.successful-investment.com/TFI *As of 8. SECTOR FUND INVESTING (ETFs): SELECTIVE BUY To diversify our portfolios, we always need to look for different opportunities to invest our money. The table of sector fund listings (ETFs) in the following link covers a broad spectrum of possibilities. The sorting order is by 4Wk performance: http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/SectorETFs071207.pdf I personally invest no more than 5% of portfolio value in any one sector and use a 10% trailing stop loss to minimize the risk. I have taken several positions and will add more if market momentum keeps improving. 9. SECTOR FUND INVESTING (Mutual Funds): SELECTIVE BUY If you prefer using Fidelity’s wide variety of excellent sector funds, you will like this new addition. Here as well, sectors can be volatile, and I advise the use of a sell stop just as we do with ETFs. The sorting order is by 4Wk performance: http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/SectorMFs071207.pdf 10. BOND & DIVIDEND ETFsNEW: SELECTIVE BUY If you prefer using ETFs for the generation of income, here’s a list of bond and dividend paying ETFs. It’s important to first look at how theses instruments have held up in terms of momentum figures. Then you should visit your favorite financial web site to examine yield and other details. http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/Bond_DivETFs071207.pdf 11. ON THE HORIZON: Bear Market Funds: SELL
The above indicator represents our Short Fund Composite (SFC) to be used as a trend indicator for Bear Market Funds. After having stayed above its long-term trend line during the correction of May/June 06, the SFC has now broken below it by -9.85%. I will not take any positions until our TTI (section 1) breaks ‘below’ its trend line and the SFC breaks ‘above’ its trend line, which would confirm bearish tendencies, before I consider committing to this market. Below are the most commonly available bear market funds and their momentum figures: http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/BearFunds071207.pdf Please note that some of the above funds try to outperform the index they are tied to by the percentage stated. While this can enhance your returns it can certainly accelerate your losses as well. Personally, I prefer the conservative route and, therefore, I will not use the leverage available. 12. 401(k) Funds (domestic): BUY The list (featured in the link below) displays commonly held 401(k) domestic equity mutual funds showing their latest momentum figures to go along with the Buy and Sell signals of the TTI in section 1. The same stop loss rules apply here as well. Since fund choices are limited in any 401k plan, be sure to roll your assets into an IRA if you leave your job. Let me know if you need help with that. In the meantime, however, you can benefit greatly by at least not buying the worst fund at the wrong time. If you follow our plan, you will never again buy one of those highly volatile sector funds, when you really should be out of the market altogether. Since this list has grown quite a bit, I have sorted it now by Ticker Symbol in alphabetical order. This should make it easier for you to locate those funds you are tracking: http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/401k071207.pdf 13. New Subscriber Information To get you a head start on more successful investing, please click on: http://www.successful-investment.com/newsletter/How_to_use.pdf and download our “How to use” information sheet and last year’s “Buy Signal” information: http://www.successful-investment.com/weekly/BuySignal042803.pdf If you still need some guidance, feel free to contact me. Special Notes: 1. I have taken great care in selecting only mutual funds with no loads and no redemption fees. However, policies vary from one brokerage house to another. Before placing any trade, make sure to verify with your broker or custodian as to any charges and fees involved. 2. Be aware that, because of the mutual fund scandals, some fund families have added early redemption fees. While some are reasonable (30 days), others are ridiculous by trying to tie up the individual investor for 180 days, or you’re being charged a 2% fee to opt out early. Be sure to check first before placing any order. 3. Should there be a sudden change in investment positions, I will send out a special e-mail bulletin immediately. 4. I will limit the tracking of 401k funds to only the first 150 submitted to me. If you are interested in having your portfolio professionally managed using our methodology, feel free to contact me directly or visit our website http://www.successful-investment.com/money_management.htm for more information. My e-mail is ulli@successful-investment.com and my phone is 714.841.5804 Until next week. Ulli… ========================= Ulli G. Niemann Registered Investment Advisor 714.841.5804 ========================= DISCLAIMER (c) Copyright Successful-Investment.com, 2003. All rights reserved. No portion of the above message may be republished, retransmitted or forwarded without our express written consent. Violation of this copyright may result in service cancellation. Use and/or reliance on this service are strictly at the subscriber's own risk. Subscriber must maintain compliance with our Terms and Conditions. We will not be liable for the acts or omissions of any third party with regards to delay or non-delivery of the 'Successful-Investment' notification. We shall not be liable for incidental, indirect, special or consequential damages or for lost profits, savings or revenues of any kind, whether or not we have been advised of the possibility for such damages. Ulli G. Niemann is a registered investment advisor pursuant to the California Department of Corporations. The information presented herein is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell securities or investment advisory services. Such an offer can only be made in those states we have established a "notice-filing" status or where an exemption from notification is currently available under the de minimis exemption rule. The investment advisor is an independent advisor and receives no compensation from any corporations, brokerage houses, organizations or special interest groups by making recommendations to purchase any of the investment products used. The advisor is a fee-only advisor and receives no commissions for client trades. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
