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WEEKLY STATISTICS FOR OUR NO-LOAD MUTUAL FUND AND ETF INVESTMENT PLANS As of Thursday, August 23, 2007 By Ulli G. Niemann |
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IN THIS ISSUE: 1. General Domestic
Equity Mutual Funds — BUY 2. Domestic Equity
Funds by Family — BUY 3. Exchange Traded
Funds Master List 4. Domestic Exchange
Traded Funds (ETFs) — BUY 5. International
Equity Mutual Funds/ETFs — SELL 6. Country ETFs
— SELECTIVE
BUY 7. Tax-Free
Investing — SELECTIVE BUY 8. Sector Fund
Investing (ETFs) — SELECTIVE
BUY 9. Sector Fund
Investing (Mutual Funds) — SELECTIVE
BUY 10. Bond &
Dividend paying ETFsNEW — SELECTIVE
BUY 11. On the Horizon:
Bear Market Funds — SELL 12. 401(k) Funds
(domestic) — BUY 13. New Subscriber
Info Weekly Market Comment: A decent
rebound last Wednesday moved our domestic TTI further away from a potential
Sell signal. However, the market looks shaky, and we may not be able to
ascertain true direction until the majority of the traders return to Wall
Street after Labor Day. As I
mentioned in my blog, we are holding our positions subject to our sell stop
rules. Are you interested in reading my
possibly politically incorrect ruminations about the market? I have
set up a blog, aptly named “The Wall Street Bully,” which will be updated
during the week. It gives you the opportunity to post comments and continue
the dialog. Take a look at it: http://thewallstreetbully.blogspot.com/ If you have
a newsreader, you can subscribe to it and new updates will be delivered to
you automatically. Alternatively, you can set this link up in your
‘Favorites’ folder and check at your convenience. This is a free service, so
please tell a couple of your friends. GLOSSARY OF TERMS USED: 1. 4Wk, 8Wk, 12Wk and YTD refer to
how these funds have performed or “appreciated” during these various time
periods. 2. %M/A (39-week Simple Moving
Average) shows how far above or below its long-term trend line a fund/ETF is currently positioned. 3. “Since 9/6/06” shows a fund’s
performance since that date. This date will be re-set once a new domestic Buy
Cycle starts. 4. DD% (DrawDown percentage) measures the drop from a fund’s
high to its current price during this Buy cycle (since is moving up given current given
economic conditions—which were favorable at the time. It is therefore in tune
with market momentum. Conversely, a fund with a large negative DD% number is a
lagging performer and should not be purchased at this time. 5. MaxDD%
(Maximum DrawDown percentage) is not
shown in these tables, but you will find me mention it quite frequently. If you were to go back to the beginning of the previous
Buy cycle ( trading day, and then select the worst (largest) DrawDown
number, you would have the information that I call MaxDD% (Maximum DrawDown Percentage). This allows me to look back at anytime and see which funds
have held up best and never hit our 7% sell stop. Those are the ones with a low MaxDD% (or low volatility)
number and will be among my primary selections for the next Buy cycle. 1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS: BUY — since
Our
average portfolio (over $50k) has returned +24.81%, after management fees, for
the Buy Cycle (from Our
average portfolio (over $50k) has returned +8.10%, after management fees, for
the Buy Cycle (from Past
performance is not a guarantee of future results. Our Trend
Tracking Index (TTI) moved higher this week (green line in above chart) and
now remains above its long term trend line (red) by +2.22%. My sell
rules are as follows: I will liquidate any of my holdings if they drop by
more than 7% from their highs since I bought them, or if the TTI breaks below
its long-term tend line — whichever occurs first.
The link
below shows the top 100 domestic funds (out of 674) and is sorted by 4Wk
performance. Prices in all linked tables are updated through 8/23/2007,
unless otherwise noted. Price data not yet available at publication is
indicated with 00.00% or -100.00%. Please note, that I only track
no-load, no transaction fee or ‘load waived’ funds, which are available to me
through my custodian Charles Schwab & Co. Since all brokers and custodians
have different policies you need to check with yours first, before placing
any trades, as to no load availability and any charges or fees involved. I have identified those
funds, which are available to me as “load waived” funds or “advisor only” funds,
with an asterisk before their names. While this may not apply to all
brokerage firms, it should allow you to quickly locate those which are truly
no load.
http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/DomFundsTop100_082307.pdf TIP: Don’t forget to check the 401k
funds in section 6 as well, since many of them are available for all types of
investment accounts at different brokerage houses. 2. DOMESTIC FUNDS BY FAMILY:
American Century, Fidelity, Vanguard, ProFunds,
Rydex, T. Rowe Price — BUY http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/DomFFs082307.pdf 3. EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS MASTER
LIST As per
request, I have added this ETF Master list so that you can quickly compare
various ETFs without having to reference other tables. The ETFs listed in the
table (498) consist of the following orientations: Domestic, International,
Country, Sector and Specialty. Momentum figures for all ETFs are not adjusted
for dividends. Please
note that I have moved all bear market ETFs to section 11, where they are
listed alongside the bear market mutual funds. http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/ETFMaster082307.pdf 4. DOMESTIC EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS
(ETFs): BUY ETFs are
an excellent alternative to No Load Mutual Funds. They are a valid choice to
high mutual fund management fees, restrictive trading and redemption charges,
which have been a problem for years. If you’re
not sure how to use ETFs please read my FREE article about their pros and
cons, which you may view anytime at: http://www.successful-investment.com/articles24.htm All the
same Buy and Sell rules apply for domestic ETFs as they do for domestic equity mutual funds in
section 1. http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/DomETFs082307.pdf 5. INTERNATIONAL EQUITY MUTUAL
FUNDS/ETFs: SELL — Last Cycle from 8/17/2006 to 8/16/2007
The
International Index (green) finally broke below its long-term trend line
(red) on 8/15/07 and effective 8/16/07, we liquidated our last remaining position
and will remain on the sidelines in money market for the time being. This
cycle lasted exactly one year and started on 8/17/06 after the devastating
losses of May and June of that year. Time will tell if the domestic market
will follow the internationals to the downside as it did last year to the
upside. As of
today, the International Index has broken above its trend line by +0.85%. I
will continue to watch prices action to be sure that any recovery can be
sustained before making any new commitments. The
listings in the link below represent some of my choices of the international
funds I track. Please note that I have added Vanguard, Fidelity, T. Rowe
Price, Rydex/ProFunds and American Century funds.
They are sorted by 4wk performance: http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/InternFunds082307.pdf Be
advised that many international funds may not be available to you since they
carry a load. However, while I am able to purchase these for my managed
account clients as ‘load waived’ funds, this doesn’t help you much, if you do
your own investing. This is why I have included some appropriate ETFs in the
above list. 6. COUNTRY ETFs: SELECTIVE BUY While I
believe that the This
addition to my newsletter will allow us to also invest selectively in
countries with better performing stock markets. With the proliferation of
ETFs over the past years, we are now able to invest in a variety of countries
using low cost index ETFs. The chart
shows the Austria Index as an example:
The link
contains a list of 39 countries/regions, which I am tracking weekly. Please
note that the data in this table do not include adjustments due to
distributions. http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/CountryETFs082307.pdf As you
just witnessed during May and June 2006, country funds can be volatile and
the use of a trailing stop loss (I use 10%) is imperative to protect your
portfolio from severe downside moves. 7. TAX-FREE INVESTING This
section shows some of the Closed End Exchange Traded Bond Funds (CEETBFs) as
discussed in my free e-Book “How to
Earn 5% - 6.5% Tax-Free Income,” which can be downloaded from my site. This new
addition to the StatSheet is a managed account service I offer. Choosing the
right CEETBF out of over 500 takes a lot of work, and special knowledge is
required to customize a selection of funds specifically suited to your needs.
To
identify the general trend of these funds, I have created the TFI-Index, as
illustrated in the chart below. If the Index (green line) is above its
long-term trend line (red), we are in an environment of lower interest rates.
If it breaks below it, we are seeing interest rates rising.
The table
below is a small sampling of what is available. Be advised that the columns
“Discount,” “Current Dividend Yield,” and “YTD” are updated weekly so that
you can see and track the impact changes in interest rates are having. The
data is as of 8/22/2007:
Please
note that many of these funds have been around for a long time and therefore 10-yr
annualized returns are available for most of them. All of them are exempt from Federal taxation and,
depending on what state you live in, maybe exempt from State taxation as
well. Here’s
the glossary of terms used: 1. 1 Yr
Return*: The return over the last 12 months consisting of appreciation and
reinvested dividends. 2. Since
Inception*: The annualized return since the fund started operating. 3. 10 Yr
Annualized Return*: The annualized return over the past 10 years. 4.
Discount from NAV: The discount or premium from Net Asset Value (NAV) this
fund can be currently purchased for. 5.
Average Credit Rating: A key number which shows the quality of the fund with
AAA being the highest. The percentage shows how much of the funds holdings,
as a percentage, are in AAA rated bonds. 6.
Morningstar (MS): The current Morningstar rating. NR means that it is not yet
rated. 7.
Current Div. Yield: That’s the income being generated and it is paid out on a
monthly basis, if you wish. This represents spendable
income. 8. YTD:
Shows the Year-To-Date performance (without dividends) to demonstrate the
effect of changes in interest rates. Some funds are showing capital gains,
other capital losses. This is a very short-term view. These types of
investments should only be made with at least a 5-year time horizon. There are
many other factors, which come into play, when evaluating CEETBFs. This
section is only designed as an introduction. If you do your own investing in
this area, be sure to read my new article titled “The 10 Rules of Successful Tax-Free Income Investing,” which is
posted at: http://www.successful-investment.com/articles31.htm If you have
a need to generate reliable monthly income, please call me, or go the
following link and submit your request: http://www.successful-investment.com/TFI *As of 8. SECTOR FUND INVESTING (ETFs): SELECTIVE BUY To
diversify our portfolios, we always need to look for different opportunities
to invest our money. The table of sector fund listings (ETFs) in the
following link covers a broad spectrum of possibilities. The sorting order is
by 4Wk performance: http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/SectorETFs082307.pdf I
personally invest no more than 5% of portfolio value in any one sector and use
a 10% trailing stop loss to minimize the risk. I have taken several positions
and will add more if market momentum keeps improving. 9. SECTOR FUND INVESTING (Mutual
Funds): SELECTIVE BUY If you
prefer using Fidelity’s wide variety of excellent sector funds, you will like
this new addition. Here as well, sectors can be volatile, and I advise the
use of a sell stop just as we do with ETFs. The
sorting order is by 4Wk performance: http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/SectorMFs082307.pdf 10. BOND & DIVIDEND ETFsNEW: SELECTIVE
BUY If you
prefer using ETFs for the generation of income, here’s a list of bond and
dividend paying ETFs. It’s important to first look at how theses instruments
have held up in terms of momentum figures. Then you should visit your
favorite financial web site to examine yield and other details. http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/Bond_DivETFs082307.pdf 11. ON THE HORIZON: Bear Market
Funds: SELL
The above
indicator represents our Short Fund Composite (SFC) to be used as a trend
indicator for Bear Market Funds. After having
stayed above its long-term trend line during the correction of May/June 06,
the SFC has now broken below it by -1.71%. I will not take any positions
until our TTI (section 1) breaks ‘below’ its trend line and the SFC breaks
‘above’ its trend line, which would confirm bearish tendencies, before I
consider committing to this market. Below are
the most commonly available bear market funds and their momentum figures: http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/BearFunds082307.pdf Please
note that some of the above funds try to outperform the index they are tied
to by the percentage stated. While this can enhance your returns it can
certainly accelerate your losses as well. Personally, I prefer the
conservative route and, therefore, I will not use the leverage available. 12. 401(k) Funds (domestic): BUY The list
(featured in the link below) displays commonly held 401(k) domestic equity mutual funds showing
their latest momentum figures to go along with the Buy and Sell signals of
the TTI in section 1. The same stop loss rules apply here as well. Since
fund choices are limited in any 401k plan, be sure to roll your assets into
an IRA if you leave your job. Let me know if you need help with that. In the
meantime, however, you can benefit greatly by at least not buying the worst
fund at the wrong time. If you follow our plan, you will never again buy one
of those highly volatile sector funds, when you really should be out of the
market altogether. Since
this list has grown quite a bit, I have sorted it now by Ticker Symbol in
alphabetical order. This should make it easier for you to locate those funds
you are tracking: http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/401k082307.pdf 13. New Subscriber Information To get you a head start on more
successful investing, please click on: http://www.successful-investment.com/newsletter/How_to_use.pdf and download our “How to use” information sheet and
last year’s “Buy Signal”
information: http://www.successful-investment.com/weekly/BuySignal042803.pdf Also, my daily blog posts at http://thewallstreetbully.blogspot.com/
should help you to become more familiar with my approach. If you
still need some guidance, feel free to contact me. Special Notes: 1. I have
taken great care in selecting only mutual funds with no loads and no
redemption fees. However, policies vary from one brokerage house to another.
Before placing any trade, make sure to verify with your broker or custodian
as to any charges and fees involved. 2. Be
aware that, because of the mutual fund scandals, some fund families have
added early redemption fees. While some are reasonable (30 days), others are
ridiculous by trying to tie up the individual investor for 180 days, or
you’re being charged a 2% fee to opt out early. Be sure to check first before
placing any order. 3. Should
there be a sudden change in investment positions, I will send out a special
e-mail bulletin immediately. 4. I will
limit the tracking of 401k funds to only the first 150 submitted to me. If you
are interested in having your portfolio professionally managed using our
methodology, feel free to contact me directly or visit our website http://www.successful-investment.com/money_management.htm
for more information. My e-mail
is ulli@successful-investment.com
and my phone is 714.841.5804 Until
next week. Ulli… ========================= Ulli G. Niemann Registered Investment Advisor 714.841.5804 =========================
DISCLAIMER (c) Copyright Successful-Investment.com,
2003. All rights reserved. No portion of the above message may be
republished, retransmitted or forwarded without our express written consent.
Violation of this copyright may result in service cancellation. Use and/or
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Subscriber must maintain compliance with our Terms and Conditions. We will
not be liable for the acts or omissions of any third party with regards to
delay or non-delivery of the 'Successful-Investment' notification. We shall
not be liable for incidental, indirect, special or consequential damages or
for lost profits, savings or revenues of any kind, whether or not we have
been advised of the possibility for such damages. Ulli G. Niemann is a registered investment
advisor pursuant to the California Department of Corporations. The
information presented herein is for informational purposes only and does not
constitute an offer to sell securities or investment advisory services. Such
an offer can only be made in those states we have established a
"notice-filing" status or where an exemption from notification is
currently available under the de minimis exemption rule. The investment advisor is an independent
advisor and receives no compensation from any corporations, brokerage houses,
organizations or special interest groups by making recommendations to
purchase any of the investment products used. The advisor is a fee-only
advisor and receives no commissions for client trades. |
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